CORRECT SCORE BET STRATEGY
Correct scores are hard to predict, getting it right is extremely difficult. If you try to predict 5 games you’ll probably get 1 or even none and that’s why the odds of getting correct score high.
The most frequent scores are 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 or 2-1 (to either team). You’ll, therefore, find that bookies only give you from around 8/1 (8.0 decimals)
There are so many techniques that can be used for this market, for today we will focus on live betting, but before we do that we need to understand how odds change according to time. This is important.
I will show you a sample graph of time vs odds in a match between Bilbao and Sevilla (Sevilla is our favourite)
to get the best odds i recommend using a betting sites with Cashout, which is important for this technique
2 – 1 correct score strategy
This graph shows 2 – 1 correct score odds in favour of Sevilla
The graph above shows how odds shift if there is no goal scored from the first minute till 90 mins. It shows that in a live match odds are influenced by time, we noticed that during the first 30 mins the odds were moving up slowly but by the second half they started moving up fast as time reaching to the 90mins.
During the first 30mins the market thought maybe there may be a goal and the odds were drifting slowly as there was much time left.
Graph below shows how the graph change if there is a goal during the first 30mins
Odds drifted from around 8.90 to 11.00 after Bilbao scored a goal at around 30 mins as the market is aren’t sure whether Bilbao will score again a second goal or Sevilla will equalize
Graph above shows that at around 60mins Sevilla scored a goal (1 – 1) and the odds fell from around 12.01 to 7.00. The market believes that there might be a third goal from the either side since there is still some time left in game, so the probability of a 2 – 1 is now high.
Buy high Sell Law
This is the trading rule, it basically means you stake when odds are high, then cash out when odds fall
For an example when you have backed Sevilla 2 – 1 correct score with R100 stake at around 35mins when Bilbao was leading 1- 0 at odds 11.00 and cashed out at around 65mins when Sevilla scored an equalizer at odds 7.00, you would have made at around 70% – 80% ROI a profit of around R70 – R80 without even getting the score correct as odds fell from around 11.00 to as low as 7.00.
Risk takers gamblers will just let it run and if Sevilla Score a second goal at around 85 mins they will have made at around 900% – 1000% ROI a profit of around R900 to R1000, but the chances of such happening are slim, I recommend cashing out when the favourite equalizes to 1 – 1 and make over 70% ROI as this can be seen as secure.
Graph below shows the expectancy of odds shift if Sevilla scores a goal second goal
This strategy isn’t as simple as it sounds because goals do not have time frame, but just come in randomly.
This table shows the time frame of when to cover favourites when they are 1 goal down.
From around 30 – 50 mins it is safe to cover 2 – 1, it becomes risky from around 55 mins – 70 mins as the market will be running out of time.
What happens if you cover too early
Assume Bilbao had scored an early goal at around 10 mins, well the market will think maybe this match will end with many goals, so 2 – 1 odds will be very high, at that time, See picture below
Arsenal scored an early goal at around 11 mins, if you have placed 2 – 1 bet after arsenal goal at around 12 mins, and Liverpool scored an equalizer at around 14 mins, you would have not made any profit because the market believes there is still too much time and this match might have many goals. You would have made a total loss within the first half as the goals have surpassed the 2 – 1 already. So you have to wait for the market to settle a bit.
What happens if a second goal does not come or come late
That is why it is very important to choose strong favourites with intention to win
Avoid cup games as teams tend to rest good players
Avoid If favourite has a red card
Check inplay statistics like shots on target and ball possession.
If you choose your team correct the results will come your way, but hey football is football sometimes the favourites maybe out of luck, if there is no goal at all you should consider it as a loss. If the second goal comes late assume at around 80 mins again you should consider cashing out for a loss or let it run, favourites tend to score late winner goals.
What if the other team (Bilbao) scores a second goal (2 – 0)
Yes that happens, and you would have lost your bet, but that will happen few times if you consider statistics about your team.
How much should I stake
- Well that depends with your bankroll and with your goals.
- I will suggest staking with 10% of your bankroll
- New customers may claim sign up bonuses and stake any amount they want with a free bet